In recent years, humanity has been afflicted by several crises worldwide, most of which have been caused by humans themselves, or their negative effects have been favored. These include the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and, most recently, the conflict in the Middle East. After decades of supposed political and social rapprochement and stability at the end of the last century and the beginning of the current century, these crises determined and determine many aspects of our lives: in addition to the massive direct effects in the social and economic spheres, the crises mentioned also indirectly influence the third sustainability aspect of ecology. In retrospect and in the light of the current situation, the question arises as to whether the aforementioned decades of rapprochement and stability should not rather be regarded as an anomaly of human history. And whether humanity worldwide will continue to have to deal with crises and wars and their effects again and again in the future. The crises mentioned above have shown that the global effects can sometimes be massive or even threatening: in the Covid-19 pandemic, for example, the necessary lockdowns, in addition to the social and societal upheavals, led to a massive impairment of the economy and its global cycles with far-reaching economic consequences for many people, companies and countries. The war in Ukraine, in addition to the terrible human and social effects of such a war, shows us how vulnerable energy systems, for example, are and what serious impacts a disruption of these systems can have. Crises and wars usually represent sudden disturbances, stimuli or changes in existing social, economic and ecological systems, whereby the behavior of the entire system changes and, in the worst case, it becomes unstable or collapses. From this theoretical point of view, the question consequently arises as to whether the generic subject of systems theory is able to support our global society in dealing with crises and wars: this could range from the early detection or prediction of events, to possible interventions and adaptations, to the subsequent analysis and derivation of findings. So can systems theory help to make our society more resilient to man-made crises?
From the point of view of the Iceberg model, crises and wars represent short-term, highly visible and individual events to which people and societies react and respond as elements of the overall system with behaviors, actions and decisions. In the event of a war, many people react by fleeing, for example. The occurrence of the events is often a consequence of patterns or trends in the middle layer of the Iceberg model, which is below the water level. By adapting or proactively reacting to these patterns and trends, it is possible to prevent or mitigate potential events. Thus, warlike events often have their origin in an escalating spiral of provocations and sanctions, as well as the respective reactions to them. According to the Iceberg model, the cause of these trends and patterns lies in the lowest, invisible and often unconscious layer. This represents the structural behavior of the overall system as well as fundamental values and cultural norms. Understanding these structures and identifying suitable leverage points offers the opportunity to change the system sustainably and prevent possible events. Armed conflicts, for example, are often caused by historical differences in cultural, political or religious views, as well as by structural imbalances in wealth or the provision of basic needs.
In order to describe and analyze the structures of systems with high complexity, there are a wide variety of approaches and methods in systems theory. One of them is the method of so-called causal diagrams: these diagrams are used to describe the interdependencies and interactions between the elements of a system. Since the overall behavior of the system according to systems theory results from the coupling and interaction of the system elements, these models offer a possibility to analyze and predict the system behavior under different boundary conditions as well as with changing input variables. On this basis, it is then also possible to define different measures to change structural behavior and to evaluate their influence. An important aspect is the analysis of positive and negative feedbacks, which can both stabilize and destabilize the system.
Even though social systems are often very complex and the dependencies are often difficult or indirect to describe (cultural, religious and emotional interactions), systems theory offers sufficiently good and accurate procedures and methods to describe and analyze them. This is especially true considering the fact that artificial intelligence technologies are constantly advancing and becoming more powerful. Artificial intelligence is able to analyze large amounts of data and identify patterns that may be difficult for humans to recognize and describe. The cultural and religious interactions mentioned certainly fall under this category of patterns, but often have a decisive influence on the emergence of conflicts. Artificial intelligence can also help to identify trends and derive possible recommendations for action.
In summary, systems theory should provide an excellent basis for describing the emergence of crises and wars as well as for finding possible recommendations for action and adaptation. It would be negligent not to fully exploit this potential and thus prevent the emergence of these crises or to minimise their negative effects. Last but not least, it should be noted that the effectiveness of this approach ultimately depends on the will of political and social decision-makers to make use of these tools and to trust in their positive benefits.
Author: Dr. Matthias Gerlich, Student of MBA Sustainability Management Class 1 (2023-2025)